Time Series Analysis of Urban Forest Waste in Joćo Pessoa (Northeast Brazil)
Yuri Rommel Vieira Araśjo, Thiago Freire Melquķades, Monica Carvalho, and Luiz Moreira Coelho Jr.
Abstract: Urban afforestation requires management to ensure its sustainability within the city, and urban pruning waste is generated regularly throughout the year. This paper analyzed the time series of the urban pruning waste volume for Joćo Pessoa (Northeast Brazil) from January 2008 to December 2014, with the objective of determining the volume of urban pruning waste generated and adjusting it to a forecast model. The models studied were part of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Family. The main results indicated that the ARIMA family models presented satisfactory results for the forecast, and ARIMA (0,1,4) was the model that provided the best forecast for 2014. This study contributes with a better understanding of the pattern and amount of urban pruning waste generated in Joćo Pessoa and could assist the future orientation of municipal public policies.
Keywords: Time Series Analysis of Urban Forest Waste in Joćo Pessoa (Northeast Brazil)